Despite April's numbers bucking the trend with a price jump that made very little sense when compared to the rest of the data, the market now appears to be settling into what I expected to happen. Global events have driven up the cost of nearly everything, creating affordability concerns and uncertainty about what comes next. Rising fuel costs have contributed to renewed inflationary pressure, and it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will increase interest rates two or three more times before the end of the year.
What does that mean for the housing market?
For the first time since 2019, the single-family home market has moved into balanced territory, with 3.3 months of supply. In simple terms, if no new homes were listed, it would take 3.3 months to sell everything currently available at today's pace of sales. A market with between three and six months of supply is generally considered balanced, where sellers need to be realistic with pricing because buyers have more choice—and therefore more negotiating power.
This shift is being driven by two factors. The number of homes for sale has increased by nearly 20%, while sales activity has declined by approximately 10%. The impact on prices wasn't immediate, largely because May and June are traditionally the strongest months of the year. However, as we move into the second half of the year and seasonal activity naturally slows, I expect market conditions to soften further, with additional downward pressure on prices as broader economic concerns continue to influence buyer behaviour.
The condo market faces even greater challenges. We currently have 5.2 months of supply, putting the market on the verge of favouring buyers. The last time we saw inventory levels like this was in 2018, before the pandemic changed everything.
For condo sellers, pricing strategy is becoming increasingly important. This doesn't mean giving a property away, but it does mean positioning it at a price point that gives buyers a compelling reason to act. With affordability top of mind, condo fees are receiving more scrutiny than ever. Higher fees, often driven by increased maintenance and operating costs, can quickly become a barrier for buyers. The most effective way to overcome that objection is to ensure the overall value proposition—including price—makes sense.
A balanced market isn't a bad thing, but it does require a thoughtful strategy to maximize your property's value.
I've been selling real estate for 18 years through a wide range of market conditions. While working in Alberta, I helped clients navigate an oil price collapse that was wiping as much as $10,000 off home values every month—and that's not an exaggeration. By comparison, today's market is one I can navigate with confidence.
If you're feeling uncertain about what comes next, or simply want an honest assessment of your options, I'm always happy to help you make the most of your next move.
Interested in Selling Your Home in 2026?
I can help you navigate the complexities of the current market with calm and confidence. Request your free home evaluation to learn about your equity and what to do with it.
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